低谷里的经济,期待红色浪潮

8月14号(星期二)马上就要到了,提醒认同共和党理念的华人朋友抓紧注册成为Republican(8月13号中午12点之前去当地Voter Registration Office, 投票地点查询: https://portaldir.ct.gov/sots/LookUp.aspx

更多信息:https://portal.ct.gov/SOTS/Election-Services/Voter-Information/Where-and-how-do-I-vote。

这一天很重要,能投票尽量去,因出来投票的没有普选多,每一票都弥足珍贵,您手中神圣的一票将具有决定性的作用!康州将选出党内各个职位的最终人选(包括州长,副州长,联邦参议员,财长,会计长,总检察长,有的选区会有参议员,以下候选人推荐可作为参考)。出线者将参加11月6号的州内普选(共和党对决民主党)。

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为什么一票都这么珍贵呢?因为光是共和党内部州长候选人就有5位,应该是这次初选里竞争最激烈的。所有共和党州长候选人都认为康州目前最急需的是改善经济状况,结束州里慢性的预算亏空,下任州长第一年就将面临几十亿的财政缺口, 这次初选尤其关键。 并不是随便选出哪一个共和党人都能搞好经济,正如Dr. Joe Bentivegna 分析:(http://www.joebentivegna.com/blog/bob-stefanowski-governor/) 

The budget deficit will balloon after we elect a new governor, and you can be sure we will hear of the need for “leadership” and “reason” from our media, political class and advocacy groups. In other words – tolls. And once this happens, Connecticut is dead in the water, as the exodus of the productive, the young and the retired accelerates. These guys may not have the stomach to fight. Previous Republican governors from the political class, John Rowland and Jodi Rell, caved even thought they had promised to cut taxes. It is naïve to think that Boughton, Herbst or Obsitnik will not do the same.

 

华人内部讨论最多的是前Trumbull 市长Tim Herbst (反细分的伤与痛 — 康州今夜无眠) 和前UBS 首席执行官Bob Stefanowski: 后者的改善经济的计划https://www.bobforgovernor.com/issues/#step2, 详细解读 https://www.bobforgovernor.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Bobs-Economic-Plan-to-Rebuild-Connecticut.pdf

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Bob 的5步改善经济的方案:


1. 两年内逐步免除企业所得税和产业税:削减政府干预可以刺激企业重现康州需要开发的活力;企业税不到政府税收的5%,但康州和临近州相比缺乏竞争力。废除企业税不仅可行而且非常重要,可以更好的开发市场经济。GE, Alexion, Aetna 搬走了,Bristol-Myers 和 Konica Minolta也宣布撤出康州。1991年以来,就业率增长缓慢。 66%的成人有工作或在找工作,1/3 待业。减免企业税有利于经济发展扩张,进而快速促进就业,吸引更多的企业带动就业力提升,从而走向正循环。

2. 八年免除州个人所得税:州个人所得税毁掉了经济增长!1976-1991的15年里,康州经济发展最快。从1991-2016  的征税的25年里,经济发展排46位。1960年以来,只有11个州征收个人所得说,这些州人口流失,州总产值和总税收都下降。下图研究所一项研究表明过去5年里,5个涨税的州大部分就业率零增长,然而5个减税的州就业率增长达10.8%。 麻省做到了,减税到5.1%,自此大量人口流入,就业增加,个人所得税和总税收都增加。

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3. 立即免除礼品和遗产税。这部分只占州每年总税收的1%,但是在经济放缓的情况下收税的行政花费却远远高于1%。相比其他州(除了西弗吉尼亚)这些税也导致人口大量外流。令人震惊的是仅仅过去的10年就有60亿调节后总收入流向了佛罗里达。康州需要留住退休人员,他们能创造工作,支付税收,慈善捐赠,购买物品和服务进而维持经济发展。

4. 推行零基预算以减少开支:这种预算从零预算开始,而不是从已经膨胀的预算开始,后者往往掺杂特殊利益和强权干预。要寻找预算少的方式做事,只有在绝对需要的情况下才加入一定的服务。即便像‘固定’支出如债务利息和SEBAC,20-25% 的州预算都可以酌情行事。两年内州预算超过400亿,有很多途径去寻找高效节省的方式:

1)审查每个部门和机构的浪费,欺骗和滥用;

2)大大奖励提出节流方案的雇员(给予足够的保护);

3)私有化公共服务,从DMV开始。

4)考虑更多的公私合营方式共享老化的基础设施建设的支出。

5)削减SEBAC:降低雇员的消耗,对于没有自己的资金投入的雇员,要明确投入比例,重新审核评估全部的延期合约。

5.推行纳税人权力法。

1)对州议员(5任10年)和州长(2任8年)实行任期限制。

2)如果官员不能兑现承诺把工作做好,或者不能恰当地代表选民,允许选民罢免其职位。

3)执行一项修正案 — 要求绝对多数通过才能增税或者增加费用。

4)要求增加收到税收后使用的透明度。宪法从来没有意图把政府工作搞成‘终身制’。我们需要选民代表有更好的责任感和这样的机制以更好的促进解决问题的创新思维。

 

总结起来这5步计划可以运行很好:减少企业税可以吸引公司和创造就业机会。减少个人所得说会增加可供使用的收入,拉动消费需求,同时企业扩大以满足消费需求。华人朋友们对礼品税和遗产税可能不太了解。这个礼品税是加在老年人将自己的积蓄转赠给亲友或者后代时要交的税,而遗产税真的可以说是“死人税”了!在美国只有少数的州有这两种税。

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废除礼品税和遗产税,可以阻止不堪沉重的赋税的康州居民搬去佛罗里达或其他没有这些税的州。零基预算将从新的视角来看那些指出是真正需要的,哪些可以避免。推行纳税人权利法将保证政府官员的责任感,进而最好地代表其选民,否则将被罢免。

 

Tim Herbst的政策:

https://www.timforconnecticut.com/tax-reform/

税收政策:否决新涨税,给康州居民减税。为了立即缓解康州工人,退休人员和家庭的压力,收入小于等于$75,000的任何人免除个人所得税;免除企业产业税,削减企业税率以创造工作鼓励创新;废除遗产税,免征社会安全税和退休金收入税;如果发现任何收税的费用比产生的收入还多的税收将免除;发现任何其他赋税沉重可以合理削减的地方。

 

创造工作机会:政府应该创造良好的商业环境以增加就业。

 

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最新辩论介绍参考: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cut-income-taxes-or-kill-them-connecticut-gop-candidates-for-governor-disagree-1533766773

 

Mr. Stefanowski said the state could absorb the revenue loss of eliminating the state income tax, which was instituted in 1991, by cutting expenses and renegotiating contracts with state employees. “The state lived perfectly fine without a state income tax.” For the business community, in addition to lowering the corporate tax rate, Stefanowski promised to ease regulatory burdens on private companies and incentivize Connecticut’s institutions of higher education to turn out graduates with the business skills the corporate sector actually needs. The number-one reason General Electricfled Connecticut for Boston, he said, was “access to technology” that the Nutmeg State couldn’t match. Stefanowski also pushed private-sector approaches to the state’s transportation system. He opposes the introduction of tolls on Connecticut’s interstates, calling them “just another tax.” State government also must seek ways to radically transform a broken mass-transit system. He called Metro-North a “classic monopoly” characterized by rising costs and declining service.(http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article/20180803/NEWHAVENBIZ/180809961/1003)

 

其他几位候选人,Stemerman 几次辩论表现比较差,他和Tim, Obsitnik一直嘲笑Bob 的减税计划,特别搞笑的是这位5个娃的爸是唯一对1加仑牛奶多少钱结结巴巴的(这个问题十几年来曾让候选人很尴尬)他说$1.25,实际至少少说$2。Boughton 说他付$2,因为他一次只买半加仑。Stefanowski 靠近话筒说:有机脱脂牛奶$4.52。https://ctmirror.org/2018/07/12/gop-gubernatorial-field-shows-combative-side/。

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Boughton这样的建制派职业政客(career politician),无法逃脱体制的束缚,即便口号喊起来很响亮,实际操作中还是走了政治正确的路,不仅没有缩小政府规模,反而扩大了。不仅没有削减养老金,反而依靠增加税收堵养老金的漏洞。这就是实际执行力与口号的巨大反差,在职业政客中非常普遍(纳税人的血汗,钱哪里去了?):Dr. Joe Bentivegna 分析指出:It is hard to speak to Mark Boughton and not develop an immediate fondness for the guy. Cordial and receptive, he is an accomplished politician who has governed Danbury as mayor for nine terms and continuously wins reelection easily, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 2-1 margin, Ironically, his main weakness is his success. With the state in such financial distress, many voters may feel that such an accomplished politician may be too willing to make deal with the Democrats, rather than take the brutal steps necessary to turn Connecticut around.(http://www.joebentivegna.com/all-articles/analyzing-republican-candidates-governor/). Boughton前两次参选都输了,他在Hartford有自己专用办公室做lobby,可见他对选民多么不负责任,好像几次辩论都要低头看稿子,对州里经济状况以及对策并没有什么灼见。

 

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关于David Stemerman 的攻击广告,实际上Bob 是2014年才加入DFC的,之前的非法经营与他无关,他是来收拾烂摊子的:GOP rival David Stemerman went after Stefanowski early and aggressively for his alleged past alliance with the Democratic Party and his “Payday Bob” TV spots accusing Stefanowski of preying on desperate workers with high-interest payday loans. Stefanowski said he expected those kinds of attacks in a general-election campaign, but not in the primary.  “Judging from the attacks on me,” he said to a reporter after the Chamber session, “I must be ahead by 50 points.”(http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article/20180803/NEWHAVENBIZ/180809961/1003)

“At that point in time, I had no idea I’d be runningfor governor someday,” Stefanowski said of taking over DFC. “I wanted to rollup my sleeves and help people and turn around a business. I didn’t even think about, well, is there going to be a potential stigma running for governor someday.” (https://ctmirror.org/2018/07/30/gop-turnaround-execs-turn-democrat-goes-unexplained/

The bigger issue, though, is the ad’s declaration that it was “Bob’s company” that faced regulatory action. As is often the case in political ads, that statement cries out for context. Here’s the relevant timeline: None of that was on Stefanowski’s watch, as he was working for banking giant UBS at the time.http://www.courant.com/politics/elections/hc-news-claim-check-stemerman-payday-bob-20180731-story.html

 

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最近4次辩论链接:

08/08:https://youtu.be/rLgHU13J3GA

08/06:A debate about Connecticut Economyhttps://www.facebook.com/FairfieldUniversity/videos/10156755957608699/UzpfSTYxODM0NDg2OTg6Vks6MTAxNTY3NTU5NTc2MDg2OTk/

07/24:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2CVg7o37zQ

07/18:http://www.wicc600.com/2018/07/19/wicc600-election-central-2018/

 

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